Market Conditions Commentary
From the trading floor - End of July
by Robert Hollenshead
Aug 1 2011 6:21AM
America is on the brink of disaster with our incredible debt situation.  In my opinion, it is having a direct influence on the market in particular the heavier cars.  It's not in dealers conversation, but I think it has a subliminal psychological affect.  I know you might say it is the model year change and of course that is true, but I see buyers with less intestinal fortitude then normal.  

The auction conversion rate is the lowest it has ever been, 45%.  There was no holiday.  No snow. No hurricane.  No 911.  There was nothing that over the 38 years I have been selling at the 17545 that you could justify the funk. There was simply no other external factor to rationalize the pathetic lack of activity. 

I think the mental funk that knowing our country is broke and we are credit rats is a  concept that rattles your confidence to go out and buy deep with your ego deflated.  We are now officially a third world country.  We borrow money and don't pay it back...and do it publicly without shame.  Weird.  Tough concept to settle into.  I think it hurts the market.

I sold 465 of 487 for a 93% conversion @ 101.1 of MMR for the week.   The market is in a definite decline. That is the fourth week in a row I have ended a day with that low of MMR average.  

However, we had a frenzy in Lane 22 straight through.  From 9 AM to 3:30 PM it was ripping.  It was number 210 before I had the first no-sale, a dopey car that we failed to register. Why you ask?  Because everyone knows I am selling, not playing.  If a buyer shows me the respect of bidding on my merch the last thing I am going to do is frustrate him.  A cat steps into my lanes he needs to know a few things.  The electricity he feels ain't no joke, it's real.  If he farts, I'm taking it as a bid.  Everything is getting sold (that's why you'll never see my grand-babies there cause I'd probably sell those cute little buggers too, I can't help myself.  When something is under the hammer and there's a bidder, I'm selling)  And once he comes out of the trance he can know that he don't need to have any fear, cause I'm still here.  

 My view is simple, it has to be.   I ain't deep enough to be complex.  When you get up before the roosters and work  until you can't move any longer, you might get lucky.  

I'd love to keep jibber-jabbering, but I just heard my rooster.  It's time to hit the street.  Have a good week.  Ignore the news.  Buy low, sell high, if you can.  Log on  to 11 on Thursday and 22 on Friday and I guarantee you'll think you found a used car factory.  I'm packing for bear regardless of the situation the numb skull politicians and their policies have put us in.  

Have fun and sell well,

The Maestro of Manheim