Market Conditions Commentary
 
Spring ain’t sprung.
by Robert Hollenshead
Jan 21 2012 1:36PM
Spring ain’t sprung.

I was just putting on my Kakis and Chucks getting ready for the first Spring sale on Thursday and Friday but was rudely reminded that there may not be a Spring market.  I already know there is no export market.  They are all gone.  No Ghana, no Nigeria, no Russia, no Kazakhstan, no Costa Rica, no Peru, no UAE, no nothing.  There is no evidence across the nation that we will have a regular, and greatly needed junk market for the tax check credit rats.  There is no market for anything that falls into the mud category.  Mud being all units that are in the factory lanes, picked over slugs with paint, or a hit on Car Fax, or the wrong color, or the wrong, gear etc..  There is zero market for anything with medium miles.  There is no market for anything with wild miles.  Since they have been going overseas and that is shut down, who absorbs those units?  A used car dealer?  Forget about it, not happening.

2007-2012 S Class Mercedes?  Forget about it.  Worthless, and if you are using MMR as your guide, keep Craig’s list nearby.  You will be looking for a job as soon as the 60 day turn sets in.  And the average LS460?   Ha, very funny.  If you need to sell, you are in a world of caca and a wave is coming, a big wave.

I don’t like the smell of this market at all.  Shallow is not descriptive enough.  It’s as deep as the edge of a razor.  It ain’t the weather, or a holiday, or a anything else.  I am afraid that we are stuck smelling our own feet.  The outside market is done.  Now you got to sell that 102,000 mile 2008 R Class here, and there is nobody home.  What’s it worth now?  The high mile RX looks like a high mile Explorer at this point, a pile of poop, not a pile of money.

An exceptional truck or an exceptional anything is one fire.  Where are you finding exceptional anything?  I know where, in lane 22, but that’s only because we beg, borrow, lie and cheat to pinch them for you, our loyal and year round customers.  That’s why when the hammer hits the desk and the unit fell $800 short, I’m selling.  Sell, sell, sell is my theory.  It ain’t very profound, but it’s the one I am sticking with.

I hope that you guys know that.  I blew my brains out yesterday, but I sold everything.   The auction sold 38%, I sold 92%.   I hope you make money with them…so you come back.  That way I have a chance of making up for a disastrous week on the block.  I sold 665 units.  My priest made money this week than I did.

Pay attention to the action on the lanes this week and tell me if you see anything different.  I’ll buy everybody dinner if I am wrong, gladly.  Cause if I’m wrong I’ll sell well and make enough doe to do so.

Out.

6 Readers' Comments

1
Mike Gibbons
Wallingford
PA 19086
8 years ago
I've been reading your Market Condition commentaries for several weeks and find them pretty spot Daddy-O.....always a good read. Hopefully for all of our sakes ( and bank accounts) the Spring market will spring. The export crash definitely sucks but I guess it was just another bubble meant to eventually pop. At least now everyone will come back to reality on cheap cars and there will be some inventory around for the "cheap sled" market. There will always be a market and some "mark up" for them as long as they can be bought without getting your eyes gauged out.

Keep your head up....Blowing your brains out will only leave an empty hole in your head for more shit to pile up.

Mike G.

2
Yakov Bandura
Syracuse
NY 13206
8 years ago
Hi Bob,

Export is done, but as Mike said, it was a bubble that had to pop. Good thing that now local used car dealers can buy cars normally now, no need to pay who knows how much. I think that everybody is still sleeping and not buying everything, retail is picking up here. Internet is the new tool to sell cars, pay attention to vAuto, and should be alright. Also pay attention to lane 22 and you'll be alright. That's my thought and way of doing business. PAY ATTENTION and you'll be alright. Sell well next week. Have fun!

3
David Coughlin
West Chester
PA 19380
8 years ago
Damnit Bob, you mean the 78,000 mile all wheel drive import I bought in your lane for $2,500 dollars isn't gonna sell to a tax refund knucklehead? I'm banking on it. We should buy you dinner when we make money on the cars you find us. I was so tickled that you cut it, and virtually every other car that had a bid loose. I only wish you were making money in doing that. Other wholesalers are scratching their heads, asking, "how does he sell cars for less than he is going to gave to pay this week to replace them?" You have everyone guessing. My guess is you live off the fact that dealers throughout the world know all they need to do is bid. If they're the last one standing the spoils are theirs. Like no reserve at Barrett Jackson or RM, takes balls, but in the end usually achieves fair market value. That's what happens when an Economist tackles the car market.

4
Dan Guckin
SCHNECKSVILLE
PA 18078
8 years ago
Robert , if anyone knows you do. Everything goes in cycles. Export hurt some use car stores ability to purchase cars, then they got to make it go away, stuck entertaining exporters while waiting for the retail customer to make a short deal, lol. Look at it as a month of the year I won't even mention that everybody acts like it was never like this before. Once we all get hammered with snow and ice.Those cars you speak of will get eaten up.I am sure of that.LOL

5
Dan Guckin
SCHNECKSVILLE
PA 18078
8 years ago
OH David , you say ''Other wholesalers are scratching their heads''. If you haven't noticed thats been happening for 30 plus years . Bob might rub his forehead calculating all the while. Funny but true.

6
Yakov Bandura
Syracuse
NY 13206
8 years ago
Retail is picking up good. AWD is on fire here in CNY. We got some snow in late Dec. and that put AWD in high demand. Now Convertibles are kicking in. I bought some good stuff in the fall, like SL500, TTs, C70s, etc. That's going too. Spring market will kick no matter what.