Market Conditions Commentary
 
Observing this week and a thought on the effect of a hit on Car Fax
by Robert Hollenshead
Dec 17 2011 12:40PM
This looks like it will be a December to remember as we will buy and sell over 2,000 units this month.  My guess is that this has never occurred from a single location in wholesale history proving once again that the 17545 is the Wall Street of wholesale automobiles.

However, there are some atypical things happening.  Over the past eight to ten years we have relied on a rebound in the junk market ($3,000-$8,000).  It is not there this season.  It typically starts after Thanksgiving when dealers are stocking trash to get ready for the tax check season.  It’s not happening.  This has always given us a good shot to help get through this time of year.  The $1,800 Taurus brings $3,200 for a few months.

The export market has completely evaporated.  Even Canada is a none-issue despite the US dollar being worthless against the Canadian currency.  They just are not looking this direction to buy in a way that makes any dent in our market.

The bright sides that do exist are a very strong market for big, loaded, fat, trucks.  There is also a little glimmer in the heavy import market.  The Porsche, Maserati, A8, R8 thing is popping up a bit.  Some action where there has been zero.  Rentals are deader than dead and actually are having an effect on real cars as these guys are dumping.

More and more dealers are following vAuto theory and keeping cars they otherwise would wholesale.  What this has led to is less hunger in the lanes at live  auction.    They are learning to sell what they trade in a way that has not happened before.  They are looking a little harder at off brands they trade and use Dale’s method of a quick turn  by pricing smart and getting the action needed to turn.

The  other thing that has become very clear is the captives selling upstream.  Look at the sales results in the captive finance lanes.  They are getting absolutely crushed due to bad Car Fax units.  The only cars they bring are the picked over, painted, bad Car Fax slop that there simply is zero market for.

If there isn’t a solution for this soon it will become a nightmare all the way back to the original owner that allowed any kind of bump on their car to be reported in a VHR.  They will be the ones that ultimately will pay for the broken plates.  Until then, the captive and the dealer are on the hot seat.

In the one in ten case where there really is a problem that is bad I say let the world know.  But in the vast majority of cases a blanket hit on Car Fax is a disaster for the unsuspecting retail customer that  allows his information to be exploited.  It amounts to a 25% diminished value on the asset and the industry will eventually piss backwards on the retail customer.  They will have to.  That’s when it will backfire on the reporting company that currently is riding high on their monopolistic horse.   It’s a very nice place to be in.  Give out information that you have disclaimed and let the market dance to the music.  When the consumer and the industry get tired of the music there will be a price to pay.

I am not a lawyer, but oh baby can I see a class action that will bite them on their backend.  There are way too many lies in their information and they think they are protected by disclaiming the source that they use to diminish the value of millions of cars cross-sectionally?  This will be interesting to watch as it plays out.

I am in the valuation business and my company values more automobiles than any entity in the world, Buy Book Technologies.  I price and guarantee the price on millions of units every year.  A hit on Car Fax crushes the value of any car regardless of what the reason might be.  It smashes the desirability of the unit and limits who can buy.   In my humble opinion, a new source of information that has skin in the game and can be verified in desperately needed to counter-balance the current marketing genius and semi deceptive, totally disclaimed, frequently deceptive, information machine.

33 Readers' Comments

1
Daryl Firewicz
West Homestead
PA 15120
13 years ago
I really wish we as dealers would band together and hit them where it hurts. I left CarFax for AutoCheck a few years back and couldn't be happier. I agree if there is something truly awful then of course the customer should know. But a small fender bender that requires a bumper cover and a headlight and goes on the CarFax hurts that car just as bad as if that car got smashed into a telephone poll. They both end up saying "Accident" on CarFax with rarely any details given. I'm just a small guy with two small dealerships, if lots of the big stores started jumping ship I bed we would see something happen.

2
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
Thanks Daryl. I am sure there are thousands of others out there that feel the same way. We are working on it. I can't give details at this moment, but I think we have an interesting solution. It hides nothing but verifies the actual issue. I think it will be good for everyone. It's transparency for everyone without nuance or need for interpretation..

3
Steve Bohn
Westminster
MD 21157
13 years ago
Robert as Always you are Right on, I have been preaching for years that Carfax is the antichrist! My example happened 15 years ago when I traded a car with an accident reported, no sign of damage, I called the past owner and she said a driver knocked the mirror off while sitting on a narrow street. But the Carfux didn't say that!
Your articles are great I tell all my friends to sign up and read

4
David Dove
Bridgeport
OH 43912
13 years ago
CarFax is often wrong and they won't admit it. Dealers will often put in another vin number to keep there car clean. I have a car now announced at the block with struturel damage and I had it checked last week and it has none. Try and get that off. I'll see you this coming week RH be there with a pocket full of money!!! :)

5
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
Thanks Steve. That means a great deal to me.

It wouldn't bother so much but the dealer is the one that takes it on the nose, every time. The dealers didn't have the "accident" and Car Fax doesn't have any problem stating whatever to devalue the asset.

They have no skin in the game but have the forum to defame the merchandise. It's exactly like someone accusing you of being a child molester. how do you un-ring the bell? The problem is their business model is based on us not taking any action because we are diffuse and it is one car at a time. As Daryl stated earlier we are not united and the public, who is the real victim is being miss-lead. It is very similar to the epic of clocking cars. The difference is, it is the VHR that is clocking the information and the retail customer is being misled.

6
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
Trust me Super Dave I'll be there just like it was the 4th of July. I learned a long time ago it ain't smart to try to out fox the market. You can't predict when it is going to be on fire. I'll have the amo and the weapons in the locked and loaded position.

7
Michael Kinner
Endicott
NY 13760
13 years ago
Class action.... I agree, but the heat must start from the press (60 mins, etc.) Makes a great story and it sells being it affects everyone with a set of wheels! Possible other beni's as well with the proper news piece.

8
Michael Kinner
Endicott
NY 13760
13 years ago
Additionally, both CarFax and Auto Check survive off fear. Ambiguity and uncertainty serves them well. Take it away and people (dealer & retail alike) think more rational when making a purchase. Sell a car as-is and everyone splits or they sit and bid with low-ball intentions, give the reason for as-is a name then they stay and pay. No one likes uncertainty. Dealers are more in fear of a mark on the C-fax than most retail customers from what I've experienced. Most retail people can't pick out paint work let alone structural defects, they believe what sounds practical and believable. Give them a new reporting method that rates and explains damage on vehicles. Educate the retail public and your golden.

9
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
This poat is not about trying to hide anything. I am all for 100% full disclosure. There is a butt for every seat. Some want quality and others want price. I announce when a car has a hit on Car Fax on the auction block. It's because there is a buyer that has a customer for the price adjusted unit. It's just like a unit on the back of the tow truck. It brings a crowd of the right buyers and almost always gets sold.

My fundamental problems I have is that they base their business on deception. They insinuate that they know if any car was wrecked when they only have a fraction. Then the information they give is frequently misleading or flat out incorrect categorically devaluing the persons car. It will soon be a regular part of the appraisal process to catch a trade with a hit on Car Fax before the dealer brings it in. Then the public will feel what currently is absorbed be the dealer, a 20to 40% devaluation. That's when you'll see it on TV.

I have alot more to come on t

10
Ron Pinchback
Lexington
KY 40508
13 years ago
I would like to know where I can get the "free" Carfax that they advertise. I have people come on my lot and want me to run a Carfax on a car they have seen in the paper because "dealers get the Carfax for free". I would feel better if the owner of Carfax would at least thank the the dealers for making them rich.

11
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
But it's all part of a very successful, very deceptive business plan. And it works. they have the public duped and dealers, the auctions, the manufacturers dancing to their music. The worst of it is the y are lip syncing. Their music is somebody else singing and they absolve themselves from any responsibility that it is true. They clearly disclaim whatever they put on the report to eliminate responsibility.

How can you make a claim against someone that isn't true. You can go to jail for that, right? I've had a hit on Car Fax two years before the car was built.

12
Michael Kinner
Endicott
NY 13760
13 years ago
I couldn't agree more, you say it much more clearly. Full disclosure is nice; the business plan, marketing tactics, and misinformation is all unjustifiable (Especially being they don't even own the information). Most of the auctions don't help with their reporting tactics either, but thats another rap. Curious to see what your developing in the pipeline.

13
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
It all starts with a universal, guaranteed, condition report. A condition report done by a dealer, with a certified paint meter, and a process that is universally used by anyone that is a professional with a vehicle. It will enable any dealer to benefit from simulcast, which they are boxed out of today due to lack of condition report, and ultimately will lead to the best Vehicle history report on earth. That's the synopsis, but it is much deeper and everyone that owns a car, a dealer or the public, will be the benefactor. Transparency with a guarantee daddyoo. We have the skin in the game so let's control our destiny and keep outsiders that look to trick the public where they belong. Scam another industry, not ours.

14
David Fetter
Mount Carmel
PA 17851
13 years ago
How would you answer the potential customer who calls or stops by your lot and asks "can I see the CarFax"? I may have missed that article. Keep up the good work!

15
Frank Curcio
Gainesville
FL 32609-2382
13 years ago
Lots of interesting blah, blah, blah, “Were Gonna Sue Em Class Action Style”. Three things must be proven in any action: Assets, Negligence, and Damages. Carfax certainly has assets. But their disclaimer is the perfect defense to any allegation of negligence. Then, proving damages because your low selling price was the fault of a Carfax report, is, well, beyond what any plaintiff’s counsel wants to shoot across the bench. Hey, I’m with everyone here, Carfax is a piss poor company who refuses to respond to industry demands. But there is a way to start to turn around with this problem. Oh My God, a Possible Solution ? Say it isn’t so ! First, you must understand where Carfax data originates from. Most would say DMV, right ? After all, Carfax buys DMV data with automatic downloads, right ? Wrong ! One step back, where does DMV get their data from ? DMV gets their data from Law Enforcement Traffic Crash Reports. Crash Reports (now automated software driven) have idiot boxes

16
Frank Curcio
Gainesville
FL 32609-2382
13 years ago
for investigators to either check or not, with no option to enter data such as “Just a scratch”. So, when the butt head citizen calls the police, claims “The Taurus just dinged my S63AMG and I gonna sue em”, and demands a police report, guess what, they get what they asked for. Crash report completed, damage to drivers side box checked, uploaded to DMV, downloaded by Carfax indicating “Collision with other motor vehicle on the drivers side”. Next, car dealer complains he lost market value. OK, so that’s first. What’s second step to this solution ? In Florida, DMV and DHSMV are different divisions of the same entity. DHSMV creates and updates the Crash Reporting Process, based largely in part from input from NHTSA guidelines. What the industry needs is someone with clout (only person I know is some guy named Robert H.) to get NHTSA to create standards for Crash Reports that includes data entry capabilities for Traffic Crash Investigators to differentiate what is a scratch and wh

17
Frank Curcio
Gainesville
FL 32609-2382
13 years ago
what is damage consumers need to know about. Then, forces these changes downstream. Have I lost you yet ? info@nfmllc.com

18
Tom Fogarasi
Ynkers
NY 10707
13 years ago
we all know about the injustice car fax can cause, that' s why i'm thinking maybe a minimum
amount like let's say anything over $ 2500 should be reported instead of $100.
reading your report i surmise it was not a blockbuster sale for you or anybody else for that matter.

19
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
Thanks for the comment David. It is simple. Give them the Car Fax. Then break out your paint meter. Our condition report, the universal condition report just shows the truth which is easy to deal with. What panels were painted and if the are original or not. We as automotive professions can validate or invalidate the Car Fax. It won't work as an individual. It will only work with a coalition of professionals , dealers, auctions, Auction Access for monitoring guys that step over the line, Elcometer, and the folks that make the cars.

It will be seen as a consumer protection product. It is like putting chlorine in the water so everybody can swim with confidence. The current situation is exactly like clocking cars and having a mileage certificate. In my opinion Car Fax is putting on the face of the good guy and making all car dealers look like the fox. The irony is the opposite is the fax.

20
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
Good points Frank. And You ain't going to lose anybody. But your input in very important. Look where we are from. All over the country and we all are dancing to music that is out of tune. If anyone thinks it's getting better, let the air out from between your ears.

Franks, it's tough to give a clear picture of what we are doing here, but I'll try. Everyone has a mobile phone with a camera. When you have an incident we will encourage all parties to take a shot and send it to our new data base which will be revealed shortly.

There are very few people that will buy a car for full market value with a hit on Fax. There is a big majority that would buy if they could see pictures of what in many cases was nothing. I get dozens of bad Faxes per week with no paint work. We also get bad Faxes where there is no question that the unit was whacked good and it needs to have a major announcement and in fact should be put on the title to protect any future buyer.

But this all b

21
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
Tom, the problem with a dollar amount , although rational, is interpretation. Whose $2,500 is it? That amount in some shops won't paint a bumper. In others they will dip the entire car twice in two different colors.

No blockbuster but for December, it could be much worse. There is no question good cars are hot. The right color, gear, etc. but this Fax thing is out of control. I don't want to hide anything, but this thing is crushing us with really bad information.

22
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
Continued response to Frank (20) above.

But this all brings up a very dangerous problem for the insurance industry. It all boils down to diminished value. Currently there is only four states that hold insurance companies liable to make good for dim value. Georgia is one. The AIA (American Insurance Association to which they all belong) has agreed to give Car Fax the accident info in my opinion, to protect them from the lurking giant, agent orange of the Viet Nam era, a problem the US government can't acknowledge, DIMINISHED VALUE. They know it's there but when they acknowledge it they have a problem that is gargantuan.

Have you ever looked at what the dim value is on FAX. A 2010 S550 hit by a train for $50,000, not totaled, but fixed. Faxes dim value $820. Real dim value $40,000. Have I lost you yet Franky? And yes, I absolutely can show the dollar value difference between a real car and one that has a touch on Fax.

We can fix it. We can help the retail customer

23
Tim Asher
Hendersonville
NC 28791
13 years ago
Robert,
There is another side to this coin...What about those of us that CAN'T AFFORD a $700 a month Carfax bill? They make it so the little guy (and wholesalers which CF won't even let join) can't even get the reports without paying for unlimited. I go thru about 100 cars a week to buy 3. Sure you can pay buy the individual Carfax but really? I am out here blind buying and end up with half my customers bringing their own CF with dings 0n cars I own. Embarrassing!!!
Wish we had a way for the small CARFAXLESS guys to band together.

24
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
Tim, I feel you brother. I sell more cars then anyone in the world and I sell them to guys exactly like you. The independent "little guy" as you call yourself are my biggest customers, one at a time with 11,000 individual car lots. If you buy from us we list the VHR status on every car we sell so the buyer doesn't need to run them and I guarantee the veracity.

For the future, we're coming. I have a number of things you can do to protect yourself and most of them will cost you nothing. I wouls happily share them with you when you are available. Aside from these stop-gap solutions, we have the Universal Condition Report almost done with an iPhone and droid ap that is free to dealers for unlimited use.

25
Michael Kinner
Endicott
NY 13760
13 years ago
Frank I like your posts and the idea of a class action suite is definitely a hard nut to crack but not unrealistic. Just the thought, threat and action towards such a thing raise eyebrows and opens ears. People will listen. As Bob said, the music is entertaining all of those retail buyers who demand, "show me the CarFax". It’s all they know. Ever tell a customer that you use Auto Check instead? "Auto what"? They have no clue what Auto Check is. CarFax is like aspirin or google, synonymous for buyer protection in their mind. A limiting dollar amount is a great idea but it doesn't contribute to full disclosure, and that’s what people want; dealers and retail both demand that in today’s digital day and age where more and more cars can be sold at the wholesale and retail level sight unseen. A $400 fix isn't all that much but if Ray Charles painted it you could play music with the orange peel in the paint; so even if an incident cleared a CarFax database its could still look, fee

26
Michael Kinner
Endicott
NY 13760
13 years ago
it could still look, feel and smell like a turd! Lets not forget how CarFax is misleading the public into believing they are 100% accurate making claims on information they do have but no such claim on the information they lack. As Bob said before, there is an ass for every seat, and we all know this. But in my opinion his idea goes a step further to let you match any ass with any seat no matter how preposterous, outright inaccurate or naive a CarFax report may be. It’s time to call a spade a spade. I know first hand how a bad CarFax or Auto Check can contribute to a diminished value of a vehicle. I don’t give a s**t if a car was painted, as long as it was done well and all evidence suggests no major structure damage, because I also know that these cars and those that are unfairly labeled with CarFax are also very sellable when presented correctly. Introducing an alternative product that dealers, auctions and media push as being more reliable because of hands on inspections

27
Michael Kinner
Endicott
NY 13760
13 years ago
and professional interpretation addresses those issues and is a win-win for all. It creates a universal language that can be used to correctly value and market the product despite what CarFax shows. I want to see a condition-reporting program that I can contribute to when I appraise a car and have it universally recognized as being fair and just. Furthermore it sounds like Bob’s idea has the ability to enhance your wholesale experience through the auctions as well.

28
Michael Kinner
Endicott
NY 13760
13 years ago
Ever try to buy on simulcast, ove, openlane, or gm smart auction only to receive a roach in the end? There are too many discrepancies in all the products currently marketed. Whether it’s a condition report from the auction, data scan or other independent agency there is no standard being followed and it is all left to individual interpretation. And while individual interpretation may ultimately be necessary no matter what new product is developed, a universal easy to use report will help you put in laymen’s terms and back your explanation with evidence extracted from trained professionals in the field.

29
Michael Kinner
Endicott
NY 13760
13 years ago
So I agree Bob and I wish to be a part of that team that helps settle the dust on these issues. Theoretically, CarFax and all other vehicle history and condition reporting services provide a peace of mind but they are all lacking the twist of professionalism from trained personnel in the field!

30
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
Michael, Join me we are coming. Bring your fellow dealers. this is no joke. It is one more pixel that will put us down if we don't take a stand. This stand will make the difference. It will help us transact and it will create a data base that is reliable, verifiable, and guaranteed.

31
Frank Curcio
Gainesville
FL 32609-2382
13 years ago
Manheim's guilt by Association: As we all know, PowerSearch offers a Carfax link with every unit posted, due to both Manheim's and Carfax's representation of their "Special Integrated Relationship," (just call them and ask, they will brag about it.) However, management and marketing directors of both Manheim and Carfax refuse to acknowledge or respond to repeated inquiries as to why a unit can be posted on PowerSearch with a "Clean" Carfax Report alongside a "Frame Damage" Manheim ECR, and yet Carfax will refuse to acknowledge the data from their Special Integrated Relationship Partner. Explain how Manheim is not a conspirator here as well ? info@NFMLLC.com

32
Robert Hollenshead
MANHEIM
PA 17545
13 years ago
We all know Car Fax has very limited information. I think the auction will say it's because dealers want to have the info on the Insight CR so they don't have to do the extra step. The reason Fax dosen't have some of that info is because none of the NAAA auctions give the CR info or the announced conditions on the block to Car Fax but they do give it to Auto Check. The problem is the public simply doesn't know Auto Check. Car Fax has done a masterful job of branding and Experian, the owner of Auto Check is not matching the commitment needed to compete in the public's eye.

33
Sal Sarwar
Allentown
PA 
13 years ago
I agree with you that Carfax is a total marketing scam and offers useless information for a price. We went almost exclusely to autocheck, where I find the information to be somewhat more relavant. We dont however run them on every unit, but only if its a unit where I may suspect something, or if Im buying it online. However, the bigger problem is the customer who comes in demanding their carfax to which they feel entitled! If they want one so bad, have them go the the website, whip out their credit card and have at it. I feel that carfax spends our $$ for us with their 'get your free carfax at any reputable dealer' adavertising, and that just rubs me the wrong way, and its not going to change till us dealers band together. Remember, we're just making them richer and we're doing all the work! Just venting! :)