Big week coming on the heels of a horrific market.

Big week is coming with cars in Adesa Kansas City Tuesday, Columbus Fair Ohio Wednesday,  Manheim Atlanta Thursday, and the Big House Friday Manheim Pa (next Friday, not this but the next our lanes are changing in Pa to be in the auction (not on the moon) for the first time in years, lanes 16/17 so be prepared). 

Here is the market as seen from the block selling the cheapest to the most expensive units in volume with SITG (skin in the game) as opposed to OPM interpretations.  The opinion you are reading is not from statistics that only show a number, not reality of who bid, who is there, who is on-line, how many on-line, what they are bidding on (or not bidding on, what is getting exported (and not), the desirability index, the stability of the market, etc., etc.

I have seen it coming and for once in my life was correct in predicting it was on the way…and it is here.  I will start by saying we hit a early year market that was truly incredible…for four weeks, after the winter from Hell.  Everybody bought like drunken sailor almost to the point of showing revenge for being subjected to retarded weather for so long.  Now we are paying the price.  The general market has gone from record highs and where you could sell a shish kabob of fecal matter on wheels for any price you like to a market where it isn’t for sure you can sell a unit for free with the title sitting on the front seat with Miss Universe driving. 

I don’t see it just bouncing back either.  Everybody has cars they paid too much for and are gagging on…plus… how do they look bringing cars home for $2,000 less than the ones they bought two months ago and can’t give away?  This in conjunction with the fact that new cars are selling and they are trading keepers on the new activity and you are in a eleven strike market: 

1.        Strike one:  wrong color

2.       Strike two:  wrong miles

3.       Strike three:  paint work (good or bad)

4.       Strike four:  bad Car Fax

5.       Strike five:  already have one

6.       Strike six:  nobody in the lane

7.       Strike seven:  CR turns a fat unit into junk, can’t see it, it’s a 3.2 the unit has been condemned to be junk so it isn’t  something they can bid on

8.       Strike eight:  post-sale says someone farted in the trunk

9.       Strike nine:  no co-validation from peers.  If they don’t see others pulling the trigger, the market is non-existent, period. 

10.   Strike ten:  lease returns has returned, up-stream, and there is no emergency to dig-in in the traditional market.

11.   More nit wits buying on the listing services which (convert at 10% or less) lowers their desire or appetite to come to the real market to go through the song and dance routine and nobody wins.

The net result is a very frustrating market, that unless any of you see why it will turn around, we are in for a very grinding ride, kind of like driving from Accra to Kumasi Ghana on a washed out dirt road, in a car with no shocks, and no air conditioning… very bumpy.  In the case of the ride in Ghana at least it is an interesting experience and at the end of the ride you can have your casket carved out of any wood you would prefer to spend eternity in and in the shape of a car or a golf club if you prefer as this is the specialty of the artisans in Kumasi (I got mine carved in the shape of a giant lupine, my favorite flower).  In the case of our market, we have been here and done this a few hundred times over 43 years and it is no longer interesting or fun.  Plus, this is just as dangerous because you can lose your ass on this ride if you ain’t paying very close attention. 

That said, we will buy and sell 800 units this week, regardless of outcome and will return next week, regardless of outcome for a few reasons.  One is to understand the trending of the marketplace.  Another is to feel the direction of exportables.  Yet another is to turn in order (theoretically) to earn.  Still another is to hold a book marker  at our sources with the gambler degenerate intention of having the merch when the market turns around (?).    And the last reason, even if it is unjustifiable, and for no other reason,  it is what we do (and hundreds of families eat from it). 

I hope you all have a good week and take advantage of our will to do business even if it makes no sense.  Torture session is over for today.

Sell Well