Market Conditions Commentary
 
read it later if it's too much but it is the reason for MADE, common sense, just ask BF
by Robert Hollenshead
Nov 30 2013 3:50PM

MADE  stands for many things among which is the mathematical equation that equals common sense.  Being from Philadelphia I always like to make reference to our founding Father B F since we are defining acronyms Benjamin Franklin who edited TP, Thomas Paine’s work that defined society and government has different and distinct functions/roles).   The conclusion as it turns out made common sense.  You stay in your swim lane and I will stay in mine, more or less.

MADE confronts a number of issues with the conclusion equaling that of BF and TP, i.e. common sense.  In the case of MADE it involves a longitudinal study of five decades.  A little overkill, I understand.  Some of those decades more intensely involved in hand to hand combat, pricing and selling a few million cars.   Other decades, in particular the current one, focused on the possible.  This required a careful objective scrutiny of the status quo.  Our conclusions will be attacked by many…except for the car dealer, the guy that makes the wheel turn who has skin in the game balls deep and sees for the most part, no solution.  This is why, as sorry as it may be, folks have eaten a bit of the lunch that isn’t on their side of the table.

As BF and TP clearly state, part of human nature and the beauty of the human spirit is that adversity has been and will always be the mother of invention in conjunction with the basic unalienable rights that TJ (Tommy Jefferson) so clearly identified.  MADE is the solution we developed to our perceived adversity.

The following not so brief recollection of the past few decades meant to be semi-comic and unfortunately is semi-tragic.  It does, however, support the common sense formula used in MADE and touches on how, when, and why common sense was abandoned sometime in the early part of the last decade when dealers were taken for granted as if we were a given as there was no tangible alternative.  So please stick with me working through the premises for the formula.  I have no problem counting, even compound fractions, but when we get to formulas I have to slow it down.  There are decades of pluses and minuses here so stick with me.

1955-1969:  Anything goes, clock any car with impunity, no computers, everyone knew what was happening, not even embarrassing to crank it back to zero, in fact nearly all cars were whacked.  All demos were definitely spun back to zero.  Glaves comes to the market on Jerome Ave and becomes the Bible of Vehicle Valuation, a guy can’t leave home without it.  Auction sheets are irrelevant even though the auctions were on fire, tons of action and any metal could be turned to cash no problem.  An auction fee to sell is $7.00, and to buy, $12.00.  What a great place to do business.  Most used car managers were on the shmear, some were half backs ($50), others full backs($100) and many that were very close to the owner would demand a $200 boff and that came with a full guarantee that the miles on the title and mileage certificate would stay wide open (making it much easier to crank the speedometer).  Any one denies it is full of horse manure.  I tell you this with full respect to transparency (where we are today).  Newspapers are the only way to advertise cars.

1969-1979:  Auction fees skyrocket to $15 per car. There was one gas crisis after another in ’73 and ’79.   Still no computers but for the first time in 1974 a mileage certificate emerges, and pretty much ignored.  Galves is still king to the point if you left the house and drove 30 miles you would turn around and go back to get it.  Auction sheets become relevant and indeed are the  forerunner of MMR.   Stamped books made a car worth more money so most intelligent dealers had stamps available to create a very good pedigree of a car.  It is also the time period when banks required a box to be filled in with the race of the person you were filling the credit application, a 1, 2, or 3.  Once again, this in the spirit of full transparency.   Ford C4 transmissions were the worst.  All Toyotas rusted off their frame sitting still.  Newspapers are kings of the world due to car dealers spending nutty money on adds.  One out of 50 cars are arbitrated, rarely does the sale get negated, it’s usually $100 adjustment.

1979 - 1989:  Computers just begin showing up, clocking is ramped.  Auction groups are formed and begin buying up what were previously family owned sales.  Fees start getting higher and I never really got an answer to the question why they charged a fee for not having the title.  In other words. I paid for a car, sold it, the auction got paid, I didn’t, and yet out of the sky, I got charged for that.  Can anyone explain that to me? Please?  Is that the beginning of I charge because I can and the dealer can pound sand as where else is he going to do business?

It is also the period of time when dealers got convicted for crimes related to spinning odometers like mail fraud, interstate laws  and forgery but not for actually cranking the car as that was very hard to prove.  Front wheel drive is here and CV joints are the first thing to be a real issue in Arbitration before it turned into sale prevention.  Any GM front wheel drive car could get turned down for a CV joint clicking.  GM V-6s might have been the worst motor ever built.  Datsun’s rusted faster than Toyotas. The difference was that the Japanese stood behind their cars and GM in their arrogance didn’t.  Ralph Nader figured that out and trashed the US automakers for which we are suffering until today.  Just look at a picture of Hiroshima in 1948 and look at one now.  Than look at a picture of Detroit in 1948 and look at one now.  Arrogance leads to disaster.  I state this all in the spirit of transparency and explaining the formula for MADE.   Galves was still king.  Leasing blew up in 1986 and everyone driving a Pinto or Vega Can now drive a Mercedes. Clocking as an institution ends in 1986, we all catch amnesia and act like it never happened.  Very odd if you think about it.   It is like talking about a retarded sibling or something, pure amnesia like it never happened. Newspapers are still king and just ask them, they always will be. 

1989-2008:  Lease volume drives everything.  Computers are changing everything and the auctions completely forgot who a dealer is.  He is like the tires on an old car.  You don’t need to check him, who cares if you smack a curb, piss and complain if he needs air but take great care of the fleet accounts.  Charge them nothing, put it all on the dealer, he has no voice, screw him.  Make up policies that cripples the dealer, who cares.  When I first told the Greg Gehman who was running a big auction to charge me more when I sell a car on simulcast because I wanted to be sure that when the dealer got the unit off the truck and saw it for the first time we would have an escrow account to throw at a disgruntled buyer to keep him happy.  That got misinterpreted as an invitation to create a new profit center, skip helping the seller or the buyer.  Now it is institutional, the status quo that you get gaffed for selling a unit on line or buying one.  Can anyone explain that to me, please?  Pretty Please?  More Wall Mart action in the buying and selling of auctions and the result is no personal attention and any questions are answered with zero common sense as “well that’s down from corporate”.  Can anyone tell me what that means, Please? I am only asking this in a true attempt at transparency.   MMR is now taking over and Galves is still there, but less used.  Younger people don’t understand how to use it and it is easy to see the green on in MMR and trade the bitch for that while we forget that it isn’t free to get that value, right?.  Wooo.  Massive numbers of lease returns are coming in.  Lease accounts are king, dealers are toilet scum.  Think about it and don’t lie.  Is this transparency or not. 

Newspapers are in a world of poop with a wave coming, the internet is here and it isn’t going away.  We are selling cars on Ringman simulcast, what’s this world coming to?  But it will never be more than 10% of the business (really?). 

2008-present:  Used car managers have a college degree, BDC department is an acronym everyone understands, there are methods of understanding how to price a car in order to sell it quickly, buy low, don’t get emotional, sell low, do it fast, stay unemotional, I don’t need to tell you about this time frame as most all of you have been here this long.  Simulcast is kicking ass if you have merch, every week, arrange it correctly, tell the truth as best you can, but now we have new competition to the auctions.  It is static listing services with all sorts of variations of BUY IT NOW, which never get out of the 15% conversion range and they all have a cumulative cancerous effect on the live auction lanes.  What happens next?  Skyrocket the fees, find new ways to make a transaction cost a dealer more than he nets on the car he sells retail.  The folks at the auction find in normal to ask a seller for a $500 adjustment for a title being a day late.  Why not, it isn’t their money? But think about that coming from someone’s mouth.  Is that common sense? Policies from Mars are a regular occurrence in order to make the post-sale prevention process seem like it has a raison etre.  I could never understand how or why they never ask a dealer’s opinion before you smash him with new “policies”.  Call a PDR hole unibody damage, while a car that has a dent on the side of the quarter panel isn’t unibody (same unibody, how do we lose sight of common sense?). A unit with an aftermarket sunroof cut out of the unibody isn’t damage but a PDR hole is?  Turn down the “all of the week” like pixels on a radio of a junk car or maybe a “catalytic converter rattle”.  I’d get 4 in one week and never had one before and never had one after, odd.  Newspapers are not even good for firewood kindling (not thick enough) as the internet is king and not going away.   So all of that to get to this.

We are not going away either,  are we?  But this is it:

MADE = (Merch found nowhere else in ass for every seat volume, just don’t mix it up) + (next to no fees) X  (total transparency price/condition that guarantees high conversion) X (enough volume to bring eyeballs) + (all arranged in logical order) > <100% conversion under the hammer X (now, not buy it now for $1,000 over retail) X ( a forum for real buyers and sellers that simply want to do business) – (nit picking mooches looking to shmeak at every turn) = Common Sense and that is the traders definition of MADE. 

If you MADE it through that I have more to come tomorrow.  


5 Readers' Comments

1
David Coughlin
West Chester
PA 19380
11 years ago
Bob, As a pure economist, I admire most every post you write. This is no exception. Let me find my Economics 101 hat on for a second and see if I have this right. Many years ago, Manheim Auto Auction offered you a place to sell your cars, in exchange for a fair fee paid for work they performed on your behalf. All were happy. You got better and better at what you do, grew year after year, bringing more to their table. You shifted gears quickly, adjusting to changes in the market. In trust of your abilities, you invest in physical plant and build a seemingly permanent presence in Manheim, PA.

One of the biggest obstacles to my marriage, aside from the hours this business demands, is my pure economist mind. Perhaps you can look at your business dealings with MAA more like a dysfunctional marriage than a pure economic model. Unlike the way a marriage is supposed to work, where a mutual commitment made to one another, this marriage you made with Manheim has gone the way of marr

2
Joe Vela
GLENOLDEN
PA 19036
11 years ago
Wow !!!!!!!
Bob I think your on the verge of a best seller
I started this journey in 1974 it's amazing how our industry has changed
Veni-Vidi-Vici my friend stay the course
M- Making
A-Auto
D-DEALING
E-Easy
Joe Vela New Concept Auto Exchange
Joe Vela

3
Renay Valcich
Mllersville
MD 21108
11 years ago
As someone who has been in this industry since 1991 and around auctions, I couldn't agree more. I don't see lease companies in the lanes buying so why are they catered to the most as sellers? If a car is a car, why does it cost more to buy a $30k car than it does to buy a $3k car? Why does the auction find ways to "fail" a car instead of a way to truly bring buyers and sellers "together"? At the end of the day, the auctions focus should be 1. To sell the car 2. To make buyers and sellers feel like they want to keep coming back

4
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11 years ago
Thanks for the review! You wonder in 10 years what the landscape of this business will be for all involved. One thing for sure is it will change and the internet will become more involved if that is possible ! I remember as a buyer saying i will never buy a car online that i can't see and within months you had no choice. Whats the next big thing for our business and who or what will be the leader? Ill bet the author of this blog will have a say!

ps When you mention rusty cars don't forget the Chevy Luv Truck they were so bad some never made it to the lot

5
John Nicholson
Manheim
PA 17545
11 years ago
Amazing rendition of how it was, how it is and how it will be...Brilliant Bob!